Igiciro cya zahabu cyagize Ukwakira kwiza mu binyejana byikinyejana, birwanya guhangana n’umusaruro w’ikigega cya Leta n’idolari rikomeye ry’Amerika. Icyuma cy'umuhondo cyazamutseho 7.3% bidasanzwe mu kwezi gushize kugira ngo gifunge amadolari 1.983 ku kiro kimwe, kikaba gikomeye mu Kwakira kuva mu 1978, ubwo cyasimbukaga 11.7%.
Zahabu, umutungo udafite inyungu, mu mateka yagiye ahindagurika igihe umusaruro w’inguzanyo wagendaga hejuru. Muri uyu mwaka, haragaragaye ko hari ibibazo byinshi by’ubukungu n’ubukungu bya politiki, birimo umwenda mwinshi w’igihugu, ubwiyongere bw’amakarita y’inguzanyo, ibibazo by’ubukungu bikomeje (nubwo Jerome Powell yashimangiye ko ihungabana ritakiri muri Banki nkuru y’igihugu) iteganyagihe) n'intambara ebyiri.
SHAKA KUBIKORWA BY'INGENZI BYIZA
Gukora portfolio yawe ya zahabu kumasoko atazwi
Niba wemera ko ibi bintu bizakomeza gutera inkunga ishoramari rya zahabu, ubu birashobora kuba igihe cyiza cyo gutekereza ku kumenyekana (cyangwa kongeraho imurikagurisha) utegereje ibiciro bishobora kuzamuka.
Ijambo ryitonderwa: Icyuma gisa nkicyinshi muri iki gihe dushingiye ku minsi 14 ugereranije nimbaraga zerekana (RSI), bityo dushobora kubona inyungu zifata mugihe gito. Nizera ko hashyizweho inkunga ikomeye, kandi niba imigabane yagabanutse kuva pompe yicyumweru gishize, birashobora kuba umusemburo uhagije wo kuzamuka kwa zahabu. Wibuke ko, mugihe cyimyaka 30, Ugushyingo kwabaye ukwezi kwiza kububiko, hamwe na S&P 500 yiyongereye ku kigereranyo cya 1.96%, hashingiwe kumibare ya Bloomberg.
Ndasaba uburemere bwa zahabu butarenze 10%, bigabanijwe neza hagati yimyenda yumubiri (utubari, ibiceri n imitako) hamwe nububiko bwiza bwa zahabu bucukura, mutuelle na ETFs. Wibuke kwisubiraho byibuze rimwe mumwaka, niba atari kenshi.
Kuki banki nkuru zishora hejuru kuri zahabu
Niba ukiri ku ruzitiro, reba ibyo urwego rwemewe rugezeho. Raporo iheruka gukorwa n'Inama Njyanama ya Zahabu ku isi (WGC) ivuga ko banki nkuru zaguze toni 337 za metero rusange za zahabu mu gihembwe cya gatatu, zikaba zarabaye igihembwe cya kabiri kinini mu gihembwe cya gatatu. Umwaka-ku-munsi, amabanki yongeyeho toni 800 zidasanzwe, zikaba zirenga 14% kuruta uko ziyongereye mu mezi icyenda amwe umwaka ushize.
Urutonde rwabaguzi benshi mugihembwe cya gatatu rwiganjemo amasoko agaragara mugihe ibihugu bikomeje gutandukana kure yidolari rya Amerika. Ku mwanya wa mbere hari Ubushinwa, bwongeyeho toni nini za metero 78 za zahabu, bukurikirwa na Polonye (toni zirenga 56) na Turukiya (toni 39).
Nkunze kugira inama abashoramari kwitondera ibyo banki nkurudoaho kuba ibyovuga,ariko rimwe na rimwe bari ku ngingo kandi bakwiriye kumva.
Urugero, mu kiganiro n’abanyamakuru mu kwezi gushize, perezida wa Banki nkuru y’igihugu ya Polonye (NBP), Adam Glapiński, yavuze ko igihugu cy’Uburayi bw’iburasirazuba kizakomeza kugura zahabu, “bigatuma Polonye iba igihugu cyizewe.” Intego ni uko zahabu iba 20% yububiko rusange bwa Polonye. Nk’uko imibare ya WGC ibivuga, kugeza muri Nzeri, zahabu yari ifite 11.2% mu bubiko bwayo.
Ubuyapani bwihuta
Reba no mu Buyapani. Igihugu nticyari gisanzwe gitumiza zahabu nyinshi, ariko abashoramari b’Abayapani n’ingo muri rusange baherutse guha igiciro cy’icyuma cy’umuhondo kugeza ku rwego rwo hejuru rw’ibihumbi 300 by'ama pound. Iri ni itandukaniro rinini ugereranije nigiciro cyimyaka 30 yikigereranyo kiri munsi yama pound 100.000.
Mu gihe giciriritse cyangwa hafi, umuvuduko w’izahabu w’Ubuyapani watewe ahanini n’igabanuka ry’amateka ya yen ku madorari y’Amerika, bituma abashoramari bashaka uruzitiro rw’ifaranga.
Mu rwego rwo gushimangira izamuka ry’ibiciro by’umuguzi, Minisitiri w’intebe w’Ubuyapani Fumio Kishida yashyizeho akayabo ka tiriyari 17 z’amapound (miliyari 113 $) yo gukangurira abantu kugabanya kugabanya igihe gito imisoro n’imisoro yo guturamo, gufasha ingo zinjiza amafaranga make na lisansi. n'inkunga y'ingirakamaro.
Ariko nkuko benshi mubizi, icapiro ryamafaranga na reta zisi, cyane cyane mugihe cyicyorezo, ahanini niryo nyirabayazana y’ifaranga ry’ifaranga ryagabanutse cyane mu bitabo by’abaguzi ku isi. Gahunda yo gukoresha miliyari 113 z'amadorali muri iki gihe izakora nka lisansi ku muriro.
Ingo z’Abayapani zisa nkizi kubyumva, kubera ko kwemeza akazi ka Kishida nka minisitiri w’intebe byagabanutse kugera ku gipimo cyo hasi cya 33%, nk'uko ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na Nikkei na TV ya Tokyo bubitangaza. Abajijwe ibijyanye no kugabanya imisoro, 65% by'abitabiriye amahugurwa bavuze ko ari igisubizo kidakwiye ku ifaranga ryinshi.
Ingamba nziza, ndizera ko ari hamwe na zahabu na zahabu. Nkuko WGC yabigaragaje inshuro nyinshi, zahabu yagiye yitwara neza mugihe cyifaranga ryinshi. Mu mateka, iyo igipimo cy’ifaranga kirenze 3% - aho turi ubu - igiciro mpuzandengo cya zahabu cyazamutseho 14%.
Mugihe cyamezi 12 guhera kuwa gatanu, zahabu mubijyanye nidolari yazamutseho 22%, itsinze S&P 500 (yazamutseho 19% mugihe kimwe) kandi iri hejuru yifaranga.
Umwimerere: (Na Frank Holmes, Umuyobozi mukuru w’abashoramari bo muri Amerika ku isi)
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ugushyingo-09-2023